* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Oceanside
- Carlsbad
- Chula Vista
- San Diego

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted, especially in coastal and valley
locations that don't typically experience strong winds.
Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- While true storm surge is unlikely, significant coastal flooding
and beach erosion from tides over 7 feet, high surf, and
increased onshore winds possible.

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Widespread coastal
flooding expected.
- PLAN: Coastal flooding, rough surf, coastal erosion, and
life- threatening rip currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Do not make plans to go to the beach. Take necessary
actions to protect flood prone property.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant coastal flooding and beach erosion
possible. Dangerous swimming conditions due to high surf and
strong rip currents.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: around 1 inch

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos,
and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides.
Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- sdcountyemergency.com

WHAT: For the Coastal Flood Warning, significant coastal
flooding and erosion possible. For the Beach Hazards Statement,
surf of 5 to 7 feet with local sets up to 9 feet. For the
Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal flooding expected.

WHERE: San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County
Coastal Areas.

WHEN: For the Coastal Flood Warning, until 3 PM PDT Sunday.
For the Beach Hazards Statement, from Sunday morning through
Sunday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 3 PM
Sunday to 2 PM PDT Tuesday.

IMPACTS: Numerous roads and walking paths may be closed due to
high water. Low-lying property including homes, businesses, and
some critical infrastructure may flood. Shoreline erosion will
occur during high tides in the mornings. Increased surf will
lead to a high risk of rip currents.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS: Greatest impacts on Sunday morning from
Tropical Storm Rachel in combination of increased swell, onshore
winds, and high tides locally over 7 feet.

HLSSGX

This product covers EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA

**Tropical Storm Rachel Will Bring Coastal Flooding, Wind, and Rain
to Portions of Southern California Sunday**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for San Diego County
Coastal Areas, San Diego County Deserts, San Diego County
Mountains, and San Diego County Valleys

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for San Diego County
Coastal Areas, San Diego County Deserts, San Diego County
Mountains, and San Diego County Valleys

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 840 miles south-southwest of San Mateo Point CA or about
810 miles southwest of Mouth of Tijuana River CA
- 22.8N 124.6W
- Storm Intensity 50 mph
- Movement Northeast or 55 degrees at 5 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Rachel is moving towards Northern Baja. Rachel is
expected to make landfall somewhere near the US/Mexico Border. While
there remains some uncertainty in the track, the current trend in the
guidance increases the likelihood that Tropical Storm level impacts
may reach San Diego County on Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for San Diego County. The main concerns with Tropical Storm
Rachel are coastal flooding, wind, and periods of heavy rain.

South swell from Tropical Storm Rachel will arrive on Sunday. The
combination of the swell along with wind waves and continued morning
high tides near 7 feet will maintain a threat of coastal flooding and
beach erosion along beaches in San Diego County. Surf on Sunday is
currently expected to be 5 to 7 feet with local sets to 9 feet,
decreasing to 3-6 feet for Monday and Tuesday. Confidence in impactful
coastal flooding is high.

Widespread rain is expected on Sunday from Tropical Storm Rachel.
There is expected to be a sharp gradient in rainfall amounts with
the higher amounts on the southeastern side of the storm. There
still remains some uncertainty in the track, but a continued
northern shift would increase potential for heavy rain across the
county with a southern shift making it more localized. We have the
highest confidence that the heaviest rain will occur over San Diego
county mountains and deserts. The most likely scenario, accounting
for around 50% of solutions, brings San Diego coast, valleys, and
deserts a soaking rain between 0.25-1" Sunday with 1-2 inches in the
mountains. Assuming the low tracks close enough to the mountains,
easterly flow over the desert slopes could yield high rates (>0.5/hr)
and totals (1-2 inches). The higher end case brings 1-2" over the
coast, valleys, deserts and 2-4" over the mountains, which could result
in more numerous impacts.

Increased winds are expected with the onset and passage of TS
Rachel. Sustained winds of 39+ mph are expected on the southeast
side of the storm. If the track continues to move further north,
that would put more of San Diego county in a position to see winds
of that magnitude. Based on the current track, more southern parts
of the county are most likely to see winds of this magnitude.
Regardless, stronger than normal sustained winds and wind gusts can be
expected on Sunday.

Locations north of San Diego County are expected to also see impacts
from coastal flooding, the potential for heavy rain, and elevated
winds.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across San
Diego County. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted, especially in coastal and valley locations that
don't typically experience strong winds. Some fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, little to no impact
is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across San Diego County. Potential impacts include:
- Heavy rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues, especially in and below recently burned areas.
- Rivers may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and
overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, arroyos, and ditches
overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous.
Some road closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across San Diego County.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
High tides reaching 7 ft, combined with high surf and gusty onshore
winds will increase the threat for coastal flooding across area
beaches. Additionally surf of 6 to 9 ft will create dangerous swimming
conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, or in a valley,
plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit
and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home
or business.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in San Diego CA around 2 PM PDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

WHAT: For the Beach Hazards Statement, surf of 3 to 5 feet with
sets to 6 feet and dangerous rip currents expected. For the
Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal flooding expected during
high tides.

WHERE: San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County
Coastal Areas.

WHEN: For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PDT Tuesday.
For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Friday evening.

IMPACTS: Flooding of beach parking lots, boardwalks, and
roads with only isolated road closures expected. Minor coastal
erosion is also expected. Additionally, elevated surf will
lead to strong rip currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS: High tides are expected to peak between
6.5 and 7.0 feet during the mornings and evenings. Additional
south swells may produce another round of elevated to high
surf Sunday through Tuesday, highest on Sunday.

WHAT: For the Beach Hazards Statement, surf of 3 to 5 feet with
sets to 6 feet and dangerous rip currents expected. For the
Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal flooding expected during
high tides.

WHERE: San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County
Coastal Areas.

WHEN: For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM PDT Tuesday.
For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Friday evening.

IMPACTS: Flooding of beach parking lots, boardwalks, and
roads with only isolated road closures expected. Minor coastal
erosion is also expected. Additionally, elevated surf will
lead to strong rip currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS: High tides are expected to peak between
6.5 and 7.0 feet during the mornings and evenings. Additional
south swells may produce another round of elevated to high
surf Sunday through Tuesday, highest on Sunday.